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The Institution

The Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) is an independent public agency. It draws up studies and projections on economic, social and environmental policy issues and on the integration of these policies within a context of sustainable development.

Joanna Geerts

Since 2009, Joanna Geerts has been working at the Federal Planning Bureau as an expert in the field of health care. Her research is focused on analysing the determinants of health care use and developing models to project the future evolution of health care use and health care expenditure. As part of the ANCIEN (Assessing Needs of Care in European Nations) project, she developed a projection model for long-term care expenditure in different European countries. In close collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance (INAMI-RIZIV), she is currently developing a new medium-term model for Belgian public health care expenditure, PROMES. Explanatory analyses at micro level (patient) and by expenditure group (fees of consultations, medicines, hospitalisations, etc.) form the starting point of the new model. 

Joanna Geerts holds a PhD in the social sciences. She has built up a broad expertise in the fields of (big) data analysis, econometric modelling and the development of projection and simulation models.  She has written several policy-relevant articles and reports on the determinants of health care use and the expected evolution of the needs, demand and supply with regard to health care.




  • Social protection, demography and prospective studies

CV & Publicaties

  • PROMES - Un nouvel instrument de projection des dépenses de l’AMI pour les soins de santé : Rapport final
    PROMES - Een nieuw instrument voor de projectie van de ZIV-uitgaven geneeskundige zorg : Eindrapport

    OPREP11700 [31/05/2018]
  • Projections of use and supply of long-term care in Europe: Policy implications

    Projections of use and supply of formal and informal carried out in Work Package 6 of the ANCIEN project show that if current patterns of care use and supply prevail, supply of care is likely to fall behind demand. This paper discusses the key policy implications of these findings. Meeting the required care capacity poses multifarious challenges for European welfare states, namely: how to limit the growing burden of LTC expenditure on social security or government budgets, especially in countries that rely heavily on formal care, and how to avoid an increased informal caregiver burden, while at the same time ensuring adequate care for disabled older persons. Technological advances could help close the care gap, by reducing the need for care and boosting the productivity of formal and informal care workers, or by lessening the need for care. As it is impossible to assess whether these efficiency gains will suffice to bridge the care gap, policies should anticipate an increasing care burden and plan accordingly for how to deal with its consequences.

    ANCIEN_201202 [23/04/2012]
  • ENEPRI Research Report NO. 116 : Long-term care use and supply in Europe: Projections for Germany, The Netherlands, Spain and Poland

    This report presents results of projections of use and supply of long-term care for older persons in four countries representative of different long-term care systems: Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland. Using a standardised methodology, the projections show that between 2010 and 2060, the numbers of users of residential care, formal home care and informal care are projected to increase in all countries, but at different rates. The results also indicate that if current patterns of care use and supply prevail, supply of informal and formal care is likely to fall behind demand. Measures to increase LTC capacity will be needed in all countries; the key policy implications of these findings are discussed in Policy Brief No. 12 in this series.

    ANCIEN_201201 [20/04/2012]
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