Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.
Short Term Update (STU) is the quarterly newsletter of the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau. It contains the main conclusions from the publications of the FPB, as well as information on new publications, together with an analysis of the most recent economic indicators
The FPB’s latest short-term forecast dates from September (see STU 3-13). We projected, conditional on our traditional assumption of unchanged budgetary policy, a GDP growth rate of 0.1% in 2013 and 1.1% in 2014 for the Belgian economy. This forecast was established against the background of euro area GDP growth amounting to -0.5% and 1% for those years respectively.
This September forecast seems to still be valid for the time being. The Belgian and euro area GDP flash estimates for 2013Q3 (0.3% qoq and 0.1% qoq respectively) and recent forecasts by the European Commission (October) and the OECD (November) are in line with a scenario of a modest recovery for the euro area and for Belgium. Nevertheless, this scenario is still subject to similar economic, political and financial risks.
The FPB has not yet estimated the economic impact of the Belgian government’s budgetary decisions taken in October (which are summarised in the “policy measures” section on page 21), but expects it to be quite small. The government’s effort to reduce its structural deficit-to-GDP ratio by 1.2% of potential GDP in 2014 (according to its draft budgetary plan submitted to the European Commission) focuses on measures whose impact on economic activity should be limited.
The FPB’s next short-term forecast will be published in February 2014.
STU 4-13 was finalised on 3 December 2013.
Perspectives et analyses macroéconomiques > Prévisions à court terme et conjoncture