Measuring social protection for older people with long-term care needs in Belgium. A report on the completion of an OECD data collection questionnaire 30/06/2016
Social protection for the costs of long‐term care (LTC) varies widely between countries, and to date there has been no systematic comparison of the experiences of people with LTC needs in different countries. In response to this information gap, the OECD and the European Commission (EC) have established a project to make quantitative comparisons of social protection for LTC in OECD and EU countries, using the typical cases approach. Social protection encompasses both cash benefits, conditional on long‐term care needs, and long‐term care services offered at no or subsidized cost to the user. A data collection questionnaire has been distributed. This report describes how the data for Belgium have been collected. The following schemes are taken into account: the allowance for the assistance of the elderly; the allowances for incontinence and for the chronically ill; the Flemish care insurance; the sickness and invalidity insurance for home nursing care and care in institutions; home care (not nursing care), regulated and subsidized by regional governments; and service vouchers. The data refer to the year 2015.
Studieperiodes in de drie voornaamste rustpensioenregelingen - Een overzicht van het wettelijke kader en gegevensanalyse
Les périodes d’études dans les trois principaux régimes de pension de retraite - Un aperçu du cadre légal et une description statistique 29/04/2016
This rapport was drafted at request by the Strategic Cell of the Ministry of Pensions. The first part discusses the regulatory framework concerned with regularisation of higher education years in each pension scheme. The second part describes the importance of regularised periods of study in the different pension schemes. The data used in the second part were provided by the pension institutions (Federale Pensioendienst, RSVZ).
Le concept de "métiers lourds" dans la législation de pensions de certains pays européens
Het concept "zware beroepen" in de pensioenwetgeving van enkele Europese landen 18/03/2016
At the request of the steering committee of the Pension knowledge centre, an overview is provided of how strenuous work is taken into account in the pension legislation of some EU countries. There is no uniform approach to the concept of strenuous work in the different countries under investigation. Two major trends can be identified: a list of strenuous occupations in the older legislations and a list of objective criteria in the most recent legislations. In some cases, these criteria include also criteria of mental strain. With a few exceptions, all systems examined only apply to private sector workers.
Perspectives démographiques 2015-2060 - Population, ménages et quotients de mortalité prospectifs
Demografische vooruitzichten 2015-2060 - Bevolking, huishoudens en prospectieve sterftequotiënten 14/03/2016
The Federal Planning Bureau and Statistics Belgium have updated their demographic projections. Belgium’s population should grow by about 85,000 inhabitants both in 2016 and 2017. Half of this growth is due to the additional flow of refugees. However important, this population increase is not exceptional; such increases have already been recorded in recent years, for example between 2007 and 2011. Over the long term, the average population growth should reach 40,000 inhabitants a year between 2020 and 2060 (against 50,000 inhabitants over the 1991-2014 period).
Étude de l’impact d’une augmentation de l’assistance sociale: l’allocation de remplacement de revenus (ARR) et la garantie de revenus aux personnes âgées (GRAPA) - Étude réalisée à la demande de la secrétaire d’État à la Lutte contre la pauvreté
Impactberekening van een hogere bijstandsuitkering: de inkomensvervangende tegemoetkoming (IVT) en de inkomensgarantie voor ouderen (IGO) - Studie op vraag van de Staatssecretaris voor Armoedebestrijding 20/01/2016
The 2015 Ageing Report includes pension projections made in autumn 2014. For Belgium these did not take into account the new pension reform announced in the Government Agreement of October 2014. By the end of July 2015, all the different components of the reform had been legislated. This Belgian updated projection of November 2015 takes into account this pension reform.
In comparison with the 2015 Ageing Report projection, the revision of the pension cost of ageing is mainly due to the pension reform. Other new measures are also included, mainly the present indexation freeze (implying a 2% decrease of pensions in real terms) and a reduction of public employment (implying some redistribution of future pensioners across the different pension schemes). These updated projections are based on an updated database (more recent version of national accounts data in ESA 2010). In addition, some refinements of the pension models were required in order to simulate the pension reform.
Étude de l’impact d’une augmentation du revenu d’intégration - Étude réalisée à la demande de la secrétaire d’État à la Lutte contre la pauvreté
Impactberekening van een verhoging van het leefloon - Studie op vraag van de Staatssecretaris voor Armoedebestrijding 20/09/2015
This report presents the results of an impact assessment of an increase in the social integration allowance (assistance scheme). The study which was commissioned by the State Secretary responsible for poverty reduction consists of two parts, on the one hand, an assessment of the macroeconomic and budgetary effects, including the possible return effects, of the increase and, on the other hand, an estimate of its impact on the poverty risk.
On using dynamic microsimulation models to assess the consequences of the AWG projections and hypotheses on pension adequacy: Simulation results for Belgium, Sweden and Hungary 27/05/2015
Since a couple of decades, the pension policy of member states is a focal point of attention on the European level. Securing financial sustainability by the AWG requires a prospective vision on ageing, labour market developments and social policy. But a sensible assessment of financial sustainability cannot do without taking into account the prospect ive development of pension adequacy. The SPC does this through prospective theoretical replacement rates and benefit ratios. However, prospective values of the key ISG indicators, such as the risk of poverty rate or the Gini are not available.
This Working Paper presents the methodological progress made in projecting international migration. The new methodology is notably based on an analysis of migration flows per nationality and on statistics on reasons for migrating, in order to assess whether economic variables constitute relevant determinants of migration. If they do, the impact of economic determinants on immigration is estimated using econometric methods. The methodology also takes into account the increasing globalization and mobility as well as the expected growth of the global population which boost international migration flows (immigration and emigration). Finally, it grants more stability to the long-term migration projections and, therefore, to the population projections; the annual revisions of long-term migration will be less dependent on the short-term evolution of migration flows.
Perspectives démographiques 2014-2060 - Population, ménages et quotients de mortalité prospectifs
Demografische vooruitzichten 2014-2060 - Bevolking, huishoudens en prospectieve sterftequotiënten 17/03/2015
The Federal Planning Bureau and Statistics Belgium have updated their demographic projections until 2060. Belgium’s population should grow from 11.2 million in 2014 to 11.9 million in 2030 (+7%) and 13.1 million in 2060 (+17%). The number of private households in Belgium should rise from 4.8 million in 2013 to 5.3 million in 2030 (+10%) and 5.9 million in 2060 (+23%).
These results are based on a set of hypotheses regarding the future evolution of birth and death rates, international and domestic migration and, as far as households are concerned, the evolution of the different ways of living together. One chapter of the publication deals with prospective mortality rates, which allows projecting « period » life expectancies (cross-sectional approach) and « generational » life expectancies (cohort approach).
For the sixth time since 2001, the EPC Working Group on Ageing Population (AWG) has performed long-term economic and budgetary projections aimed at assessing the impact of ageing population. The last “Ageing Report” to date was published in 2012. The 2015 edition, which will be released in spring 2015, will present projections which have been endorsed in February 2015 by the EPC.
The projections of public pension expenditure are worked out at national level – by the Federal Planning Bureau in the case of Belgium – in the framework of the assumptions of the AWG, while the projections of the other age-related public expenditure items are worked out by DG ECFIN Services. These public pension expenditure projections are submitted to a peer review process, on the basis of a technical so-called national “country fiche”. These “country fiches” are released by the EC jointly with the “Ageing Report” itself, but the EC has kindly authorized FPB to use the “Belgium: Country Fiche 2014” for national purposes and to publish it before the release of the “Ageing Report 2015”.
Une méthodologie de projection des ménages : le modèle HPROM (Household PROjection Model) 20/11/2014
This Working Paper presents the methodology the Federal Planning Bureau currently utilizes to draw up the Belgian household projections by 2060. This methodology allows for detailed projections of the number of households (at the district level) by household type and according to the factual situation and not the legal situation. Thus, the projections include the different forms of living arrangements, such as cohabitation, single-parent families, single households, etc. They also guarantee the coherence with the national population projections which have been published by the Federal Planning Bureau and the Directorate-General of Statistics for several years and are based on the so-called component method.
Working Paper 09-14 (fr),
This paper presents the models developed at the FPB to project public spending on curative care and long-term care in the medium and long term. The variables explaining curative care spending are income, the age composition of the population, the unemployment rate and technological and medical progress. This variable is approximated using two indicators, the number of new drug approvals (Farmanet data) and the approvals for non-pharmaceutical products (Food and Drug Administration data). With the exception of the latter, all drivers mentioned above increase the cost of curative care. As for long-term care spending, it is explained by income, the proportion of older people in the population and their life expectancy. Long-term care spending is positively impacted by income and ageing. Yet, due to the increase in life expectancy, the impact of ageing shifts gradually towards the oldest age group.
Working Paper 06-14 (nl),
Monitoring van de relancestrategie van de Federale regering – Voortgangsverslag
Monitoring de la stratégie de relance du Gouvernement fédéral - Rapport d’avancement 17/07/2014
The present document is the fourth biannual progress report in which the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) gives an account of the monitoring of the economic stimulus strategy announced by the Federal government in the summer of 2012.
This progress report gives an overview of the measures to follow up and reviews the progress of their implementation (situation on June 30, 2014).