This publication presents the main results of the demographic outlook for Belgium: population, households, births, deaths, international migration and internal migration. To show the sensitivity of the results to some assumptions, three alternative scenarios are analysed: one linked to the health crisis (Covid-19), another modifying the long-term mortality assumption and a last one adjusting the assumption on international emigration.
The 2020-2070 demographic outlook presents the evolution of the population and households in Belgium from 2020 to 2070. In addition to updating future demographic trends, this outlook is built on a specific scenario related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Population growth in 2020 and 2021 will be very moderate, particularly as a result of the impact of COVID on mortality and international migration
This Working Paper presents the methodology that has been applied since 2020 in the model used to draw up the population outlook for Belgium. The methodology considers that fertility is explained by both structural (education, labour market participation, etc.) and cyclical factors (the economic cycle, etc.). Those factors are taken into account through three elements: (1) expert opinion on long-term fertility trends, (2) an explicit trend in the fertility schedule and (3) the effect of cyclical and structural determinants of fertility using an error-correction model.
The 2019-2070 demographic outlook presents the evolution of the population and households in Belgium from 2019 to 2070.
The outlook also highlights the impact of alternative fertility scenarios on population growth. In the light of fertility trends and population ageing, it also confirms the key role of international migration in population growth.
The 2018-2070 demographic outlook presents the evolution of the population and households in Belgium from 2018 to 2070. The assumptions have been updated, taking into account new observations available, in particular population statistics as at 1 January 2018 and movements (births, deaths, internal and international migration) for 2017. The outlook also provides specific insight into medium-term fertility rates.
In preparation of the 2018 Pension Adequacy Report by the European Commission and the Social Protection Committee, teams from Belgium, Sweden and Italy use their microsimulation models to simulate the possible developments of pension adequacy while taking into account the set of economic and demographic projections developed by the AWG. The results of this exercise complement the AWG simulations of pension expenditures in a context of demographic. The results described in detail in this report were summarised in section 5.1.2. of the 2018 Pension Adequacy Report.
This paper explores the possibility of building a multiregional migration model at the EU level based on Eurostat statistics on migration by country of previous and next residence, by country of birth or by citizenship. These statistics are used to build a consistent origin-destination matrix for the EU Member States. In this case, ’consistent’ means that the sum of all intra-EU movements should be equal to 0. This matrix is then used to compute migration rates between EU countries, which can be inserted into a multiregional population projection model.
This paper shows that the currently available official statistics on migration flows can be used to build a multiregional migration model at the EU level. Although more developments should be implemented to test and improve the model, it produces promising results.
This Working Paper analyses various alternative population projections. The first approach shows the impact of alternative future development scenarios for the population growth components. The effects of some of these scenarios on the development in social expenditure and the at-risk-of-poverty rate for pensioners are also analysed. The second approach consists in carrying out a sensitivity analysis of the population projection to some model parameters, in particular the observation periods selected to estimate trends.
This Working Paper presents, on the basis of information available until July 2016, a projection at unchanged policy until 2030 of the population at risk of poverty or social exclusion in Belgium, as defined in the framework of the Europe 2020 Strategy. This population should amount to 2.232 million people in 2018, or 418 000 more than the Europe 2020 target. By 2030, its share should shrink to 16.1%, still 5.6 percentage points higher than the goal resulting from the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
This Working Paper presents the projection methodology for internal migration, which is integrated from 2016 in the population projections published by the Federal Planning Bureau and Statistics Belgium. The methodology is based on migration intensity between districts, rather than on emigration rates from one district to another. With migration intensity, not only is the population of the departure district taken into account (population at risk of moving) but also the population of the destination district (as a proxy for attractiveness). The short-term evolution of migration intensity is in line with the most recent trends observed in a series of preferential migration flows between districts. In the long term, migration intensity is assumed to be constant.
Since a couple of decades, the pension policy of member states is a focal point of attention on the European level. Securing financial sustainability by the AWG requires a prospective vision on ageing, labour market developments and social policy. But a sensible assessment of financial sustainability cannot do without taking into account the prospect ive development of pension adequacy. The SPC does this through prospective theoretical replacement rates and benefit ratios. However, prospective values of the key ISG indicators, such as the risk of poverty rate or the Gini are not available.
This Working Paper presents the methodological progress made in projecting international migration. The new methodology is notably based on an analysis of migration flows per nationality and on statistics on reasons for migrating, in order to assess whether economic variables constitute relevant determinants of migration. If they do, the impact of economic determinants on immigration is estimated using econometric methods. The methodology also takes into account the increasing globalization and mobility as well as the expected growth of the global population which boost international migration flows (immigration and emigration). Finally, it grants more stability to the long-term migration projections and, therefore, to the population projections; the annual revisions of long-term migration will be less dependent on the short-term evolution of migration flows.
This Working Paper presents the methodology the Federal Planning Bureau currently utilizes to draw up the Belgian household projections by 2060. This methodology allows for detailed projections of the number of households (at the district level) by household type and according to the factual situation and not the legal situation. Thus, the projections include the different forms of living arrangements, such as cohabitation, single-parent families, single households, etc. They also guarantee the coherence with the national population projections which have been published by the Federal Planning Bureau and the Directorate-General of Statistics for several years and are based on the so-called component method.
This Working Paper reflects the contribution of the fpb to the first work package of the agir project, organized by the Spanish fedea. It thoroughly studies the bio-demographic aspects of population ageing. The aim is to get a better understanding of the nature of ageing. Not only is it important to analyse how fast a population gets older, it is also important to see what effect age has on the population’s health and fitness, especially of the elderly.