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Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.

The NIME Economic Outlook for the World Economy 2004 - 2010 (Also in this issue: oil price shocks) [ Working Paper 16-04 - ]

This Working Paper presents a medium-term macro-economic outlook for the major economic areas of the world. The outlook is produced using nime, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macro-econometric world model. The Working Paper also features an assessment of the effects of a permanent 25 percent increase in the price of oil, a description of the nime model, and an appendix outlining the major technical assumptions of the outlook.

The Belgian Federal Planning Bureau (fpb) has a long tradition of using macro-econometric models, to study both the Belgian economy and the international economic environment. Alongside the modtrim and hermes models, which are used regularly for detailed analyses and projections of the Belgian economy, the fpb also makes regular use of large-scale macro-econometric multi-country models such as nemesis and nime. These models have helped the fpb broaden its understanding of international economic developments, and to assess the risks pertaining to the underlying international economic environment in the fpb’s projections of the Belgian economy.

The outlook presented in this Working Paper builds on and complements the forecasts made by other institutions. Indeed, since the nime model essentially focuses on the medium-term, it is currently calibrated to replicate the available business cycle data for 2004, as presented by the European Commission in its latest short-term Economic Forecasts. The nime outlook then goes on to provide a coherent model-based outlook up to 2010 for the major economic areas of the world.

The outlook presented in this Working Paper is also to be viewed as a baseline, providing insights into potential developments linked to world macro-economic imbalances as well as a coherent basis for variant analyses. The reader should be aware however, that the fpb uses various sources for the assumptions it retains regarding the underlying international economic environment of its short-term forecasts and medium-term projections for the Belgian economy.

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