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Publications

Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.

Documents (29)

2013

  • NIME Outlook for the World Economy 2013-2024 - Special topic: Fiscal consolidation and euro area growth perspectives 26/12/2013

    La nouvelle projection mondiale réalisée avec le modèle NIME du Bureau fédéral du Plan couvre la période 2013-2024. La projection indique que l’on peut s’attendre à une reprise économique limitée au cours de la période 2013-2016. Au cours de cette période, la croissance permettrait la résorption des écarts de production de la zone euro, bien que la croissance de l’économie mondiale serait tirée essentiellement par des pays autres que ceux de l’Union européenne, les États-Unis ou le Japon. À plus long terme, la croissance économique mondiale fléchirait, suite au ralentissement général de la croissance de la productivité, mais suite aussi à des évolutions démographiques défavorables.

    Il faut noter que ces projections 2013-2024 pour l’économie mondiale ne servent pas d’input aux prévisions à court terme et aux projections à moyen terme réalisées pour la Belgique par le Bureau fédéral du Plan. En effet, ces dernières sont basées sur un certain nombre de méthodologies ad hoc et intègrent les prévisions internationales provenant d’institutions telles que la Commission européenne, l’OCDE et le FMI.

    NIME 01-13  Publication(en),

2012

  • NIME Outlook for the World Economy 2012-2020 06/08/2012

    Les nouvelles perspectives pour l‘économie mondiale du Bureau fédéral du Plan présentent des projections pour les principales zones économiques du monde sur la période 2012-2020. La projection repose sur l’hypothèse d’un cadre institutionnel stable dans l’Union européenne et sur l’absence de mesures de consolidation de bilan qui auraient des effets suffisamment importantes que pour affecter durablement la croissance du PIB. Dans un tel cadre, la projection pour la zone euro indique qu’une croissance modérée de la demande finale intérieure et des exportations nettes positives devraient produire une croissance modérée du PIB sur la période 2012-2020. La croissance économique devrait être supérieure à la croissance de la production potentielle, fermant ainsi l’écart de production de la zone euro d’ici 2017. Cette fermeture de l’écart de production devrait être accompagnée d’un recul du taux de chômage, qui retomberait à son niveau d’avant crise. En même temps, la hausse du prix de la consommation privée devrait accélérer, atteignant d’ici 2020 un niveau compatible avec la cible d’inflation de la Banque centrale européenne. Les mesures de consolidation budgétaire qui sont simulées dans cette projection devraient générer des surplus primaires qui permettraient un recul du taux d’endettement public en pour cent du PIB.

    NIME 01-12  Publication(en),

2010

  • The NIME Outlook for the World Economy : Medium-Term Prospects for the World Economy - Period 2010-2018 24/08/2010

    At the time of writing, and although certain segments of financial markets do not yet seem to have returned to their normal, pre‐global financial crisis, functioning, it appears that the wide‐spread and massive policy initiatives of the past year have managed to avert any systemic financial meltdown and limit the depth of the world‐wide recession. Indeed, monetary policy, financial policy, the fiscal stimulus plans that began to be implemented in 2009 and the simultaneous boost from countries’ automatic fiscal stabilisers, all managed to limit the scale of the downturn in real GDP and employment levels. The downturn is also thought to have been limited in OECD countries due to the unexpected resilience of GDP growth in emerging market economies such as China, Brazil and India, who helped to prop up OECD activity by helping to contain the decline in world trade.

    In early 2010, policy has remained supportive on all fronts, fiscal, monetary and financial. However, with respect to fiscal policy in particular, after the massive public interventions of 2009, the time has come to look at the effects that these initiatives have had, both in terms of their support to the economy, but also in terms of their effects on countries’ budget deficits and debts and the exit strategies. A difficult balance must be struck between the necessary continued public support for the economy as long as output gaps and unemployment rates remain high, and the medium‐run adjustments to public deficit and debt trajectories.

    The current scenario is one where governments withdraw public support from the economy gradually without compromising the recovery. Over the medium term, public deficits do not explode. Real GDP growth picks up as the private sector begins to drive the recovery. In the euro area, we see the emergence of structural current account surpluses. In the United States, there is low inflation and a rebalancing of the current account deficit. In Japan, unfavourable demographic trends lead to low GDP growth; furthermore, the country is projected to continue down a path of deflation throughout the projection period.

    NIME 01-10  Publication(en),

2009

  • Nime Policy Brief - Fiscal Stabilisation Plans and the Outlook for the World Economy 20/04/2009

    L’économie mondiale fait face à une crise économique et financière profonde depuis août 2007. Face à ce qui est devenu une récession mondiale, quel espoir peut-on placer dans les plans de relance budgétaire annoncés ? Les plans de relance décidés et mis en œuvre dans la zone euro et aux Etats-Unis depuis fin 2008 constitueront-ils des réponses adéquates, notamment face à l’actuelle crise financière systémique ? Ce document présente une évaluation de l’efficacité de la politique budgétaire et des plans de relance actuels. Il indique que, bien que les mesures budgétaires soient certainement utiles pour limiter l’ampleur et la durée de la crise, celles-ci seront insuffisantes à elles seules pour empêcher une récession prolongée suivie d’une reprise molle. Afin de maximiser l’efficacité des plans de relance, ceux-ci devront être accompagnés de politiques monétaires accommodantes. De plus, afin d’accélérer et de soutenir une prochaine reprise de l’activité économique mondiale, les politiques budgétaires et monétaires devront être accompagnées par des mesures visant à assainir les secteurs bancaires et financiers.

    NIME 01-09  Publication(en),

2008

  • The NIME Outlook for the World Economy - Medium-Term Prospects for the World Economy - Period 2008-2015 17/09/2008

    Le Bureau fédéral du Plan belge présente sa nouvelle projection macroéconomique mondiale 2008-2015 dans sa publication "The NIME Outlook for the World Economy" d'août 2008. Le document contient également un Focus thématique consacré à l'évolution du marché immobilier résidentiel américain.

    Le scénario présenté dans cette projection mondiale a été établi sur base des données disponibles sur l'économie mondiale à la mi-août 2008. L'environnement économique international retenu dans les nouvelles prévisions économiques belges du 12 septembre 2008 est basé sur des hypothèses internationales plus récentes, notamment en ce qui concerne la croissance du PIB de la zone euro en 2008.

    Dans le scénario retenu, le PIB de la zone euro progresserait d'un modeste 1,5% en 2008 et de seulement 1% en 2009. La croissance du PIB devrait atteindre un taux annuel moyen de 1,6% sur la période 2008-2015, mais serait progressivement limitée par la baisse de la population d'âge actif ainsi que par des contraintes de capacité dans le secteur privé. Ces contraintes d'offre pousseraient les autorités monétaires à augmenter les taux d'intérêt. La croissance du PIB devrait atteindre 1,8% aux Etats-Unis en 2008, et s'établirait à seulement 2% sur la période 2008-2015. La croissance ralentirait en 2011 suite à l'expiration de certaines exemptions fiscales importantes. Au Japon, la croissance du PIB devrait atteindre 1% en 2008 mais tomberait à seulement 0,4% en 2009. Le PIB progresserait au rythme relativement lent de 0,9% par an en moyenne sur la période 2008-2015. La croissance économique japonaise fléchirait rapidement suite au vieillissement de la population et la baisse de l'offre d'emploi.

    NEO 02-08  Publication(en),

2007

  • The NIME Outlook for the World Economy 2007-2013 10/09/2007

    This August 2007 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2007-2013 macroeconomic projection for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. This issue includes a number of essential stochastic results relative to our new outlook, as well as an assessment of other less easily quantifiable risks that are currently seen to weigh on the outlook. The major technical assumptions behind the outlook and a brief description of the NIME model are presented in the appendix.

    NEO 02-07  Publication(en),

  • The NIME Outlook for the World Economy 2007-2013 13/02/2007

    The January 2007 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2007-2013 macroeconomic projection for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. This issue also includes a number of essential stochastic results concerning the new world economic outlook. The major technical assumptions behind the outlook as well as a brief description of the NIME model are presented in the appendix.

    NEO 01-07  Publication(en),

2006

  • The NIME Outlook for the World Economy 2006-2012 05/09/2006

    The August 2006 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2006-2012 macroeconomic projection for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. This issue features a stochastic evaluation of its world economic outlook. The major technical assumptions behind the outlook as well as a brief description of the NIME model are presented in the appendix.

    NEO 02-06  Publication(en),

  • An Evaluation of the Risks Surrounding the 2006-2012 NIME Economic Outlook : Illustrative Stochastic Simulations 15/04/2006

    In this Working Paper, we describe how we used stochastic simulation to evaluate the risks surrounding the January 2006 NIME Economic Outlook (NEO) for the world economy. We summarise the main results by showing confidence intervals around the baseline projection as well as probabilities that certain events will occur. The results presented in this Working Paper are of an illustrative nature and do not constitute an update of the January 2006 NIME Economic Outlook.

    Working Paper 02-06  Publication(en),

2005

  • Monetary Policy, Asset Prices and Economic Growth in the World Economy over the 1995-2004 Period : A counterfactual simulation with the NIME Model 29/12/2005

    Over the 1995-2004 period, the evolution of stock market indices in the United States and Europe exhibited a distinct boom-and-bust pattern, rising dramatically during the second half of the 1990s and falling sharply at the turn of the century. These changes in asset prices affected household wealth and the financing cost of investments, so that the period of rising asset prices was also characterised by strong economic growth, while the period of falling asset prices saw weaker growth. As equity markets were largely driven by “irrational exuberance” in the second half of the 1990s, it is sometimes argued that, in order to foster a more balanced growth path, the monetary authorities in the United States and the euro area should have targeted changes in a price index which not only includes contemporaneous consumer prices but also asset prices.

    In this Working Paper we assess the worldwide macroeconomic implications of an interest rate rule whereby the major central banks of the world target not only changes in the traditional consumer price index but also changes in asset prices. We do this by simulating the nime model over the 1995-2004 period with an interest rate rule similar to the well-known Taylor rule, but augmented for changes in asset prices.

    Working Paper 17-05  Publication(en),

  • The Macroeconomic Effects of an Oil Price Shock on the World Economy : A Simulation with the NIME Model 08/04/2005

    In this Working Paper, we use the nime model to assess the macroeconomic effects of an oil price shock on the world economy. We start with an overview of the nime model, and a presentation of our modelling of oil price shocks. Next, we examine the effect of a permanent 25 per cent increase in the price of oil, under the assumption that the shock is caused by an increase in the mark-up of the oil price.

    Working Paper 06-05  Publication(en),

  • The NIME Economic Outlook for the World Economy 2005 - 2011 (Also in this issue: the Lisbon Strategy) 21/02/2005

    This Working Paper presents a medium-term macroeconomic outlook for the major economic areas of the world. The outlook was prepared using nime, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s (fpb) macroeconometric world model. The Working Paper also features an assessment of the euro area’s progress towards the European Union’s Lisbon goals for growth and employment, a brief description of the nime model and an appendix outlining the major technical assumptions of this outlook.

    Working Paper 02-05  Publication(en),

2004

  • The NIME Economic Outlook for the World Economy 2004 - 2010 (Also in this issue: oil price shocks) 08/10/2004

    This Working Paper presents a medium-term macro-economic outlook for the major economic areas of the world. The outlook is produced using nime, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macro-econometric world model. The Working Paper also features an assessment of the effects of a permanent 25 percent increase in the price of oil, a description of the nime model, and an appendix outlining the major technical assumptions of the outlook.

    Working Paper 16-04  Publication(en),

  • The macro-economic effects of labour market reforms in the European Union - Some selected simulations with the NIME model. 10/05/2004

    In this paper, we use the nime model to assess the medium-term macro-economic effects for the European Union (eu) of a one percentage point cut in the social security contribution rate, and a one percentage point increase in the labour participation rate. In the case of a cut in the social security contribution rate, we consider two variants. First, we consider the variant in which the tax cut is ex ante financed by an across the board cut in public outlays. Next, we consider the variant in which the tax cut is ex ante financed by an increase in the indirect tax rates. In the long run, such measures increase unambiguously employment and potential output, thereby raising the standard of living of the eu citizens and reinforcing the sustainability of the social protection system. However, all kinds of rigidities prevent an immediate adjustment towards the new equilibrium, so that economic activity may be less buoyant in the medium-term. This paper describes these medium-term effects.

    Working Paper 12-04  Publication(en),

2003

  • An assessment of the risks to the medium-term outlook of the Belgian international economic environment 12/09/2003

    Each year, the Federal Planning Bureau (fpb) prepares a medium-term outlook for the Belgian economy with its macro-econometric hermes model. One of the key inputs of this exercise is a baseline scenario for the Belgian international economic environment, which includes an outlook for the output, imports, prices and financial variables of the major trading partners of Belgium. Traditionally, this international environment is based on the medium-term outlook presented by the European Commission in its Autumn Forecasts or the most recent available medium-term outlook of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (oecd).

    Working Paper 12-03  Publication(en),

  • The international transmission of shocks - Some selected simulations with the NIME model 01/09/2003

    The macro-econometric nime model is one of the analytical tools used by the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau to improve its understanding of developments in the Belgian international economic environment. This paper shows some concrete applications with this model by analysing the spill-over effects of shocks from the United States (us) to the euro area and the rest of the world. The shocks we investigate are a temporary increase in public expenditures in the us, a us-led world-wide permanent increase in total factor productivity, an increase in the risk premium in the us stock market, and a temporary 1 percentage point increase in the us short-term interest rate. Here, we will discuss how these shocks affect economic activity in the us and how they are transmitted to the euro area. Such an analysis can be useful because it catalogues answers to questions which are often posed by economists who want to assess their medium term projection of the euro area economy.

    Working Paper 09-03  Publication(en),

2002

  • Monetary policy in the euro area - Simulations with the NIME model 01/11/2002

    In this paper, we investigate with a macroeconometric world model how mone-tary policy rules affect economic activity in the euro area. In the economic literature, there is a general consensus that a credible monetary policy rule is to be preferred to discretionary interventions by central banks because monetary surprises can increase expected inflation and worsen economic performance (Kydland and Prescott (1977)). Several monetary policy rules have been proposed, for example, money targeting (Friedman (1956)), inflation targeting (Bernanke et al. (1999)), nominal income targeting (Hall and Mankiw (1994), Frankel and Chinn (1995)), and an interest rate rule that targets inflation and output relative to a reference value (Taylor (1993)). Although the theoretical merits of these rules have been thoroughly discussed in the literature, the empirical investigation of the implications of these rules has only recently commenced (Bryant et al. (1993)).

    Working Paper 11-02  Publication(en),

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