Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.
Since 1994 the Federal Planning Bureau has been using the annual version of the econometric model modtrim as a central tool to produce its short-term macroeconomic forecasts. At the origin of the project, and as its name indicates, this annual version was meant to be short-lived and quickly replaced by a quarterly version. Unfortunately, the lack of quarterly national accounts prevented from doing so for several years. In 1998, the Institute for National Accounts published official quarterly accounts for the first time and the construction of the quarterly version of the model started in Spring 2000. On that occasion, the opportunity was taken to reassess all behavioural equations of the model. The more limited availability of quarterly data, in comparison with annual data, implied that a more aggregated version of the accounting framework of the yearly model had to be constructed.
The choice to develop a quarterly model was of course not only motivated by its original name, but seemed very well suited to business cycle analysis and short-term forecasting. In this context, three elements are worth mentioning:
The aim of this working paper is not to provide a complete model user’s guide, but to present the specification and estimation results of the behavioural equations, and to give an insight into the overall accounting structure of the model. The simultaneous responses of the complete model to exogenous shocks are examined through different technical simulations and scenario analyses.
Perspectives et analyses macroéconomiques > Prévisions à court terme et conjoncture
Méthodes mathématiques et quantitatives > Modélisation économétrique [C5]
Macroéconomie et économie monétaire > Modèles agrégés généraux [E1]