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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
Reports - REP_CEVSCVV2023_12855 (fr), (nl),
The results of this report show that the average pension of women is lower than that of men: in december 2017 the average gross pension of women aged 65 and older was 1469 euros, compared to 1920 euros for men. The gender pension gap thus equals 24%. The fact that this gap is not higher can to an important extent be attributed to the existence of derived rights. Without derived rights the gap would be 50%.
Reports - REP_12783 (fr), (nl),
For the projection of social sustainability indicators, the Federal Planning Bureau uses the dynamic microsimulation model MIDAS, which has recently undergone a major revision. In this working paper we report a projection up to 2070 of poverty risks and income inequality among the elderly, pensioners and the population under 65 years, in a scenario with current pension policies and projected demographic and socio-economic evolutions.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-23 (nl),
Other publications - IIS 04 (fr), (nl),
Belgium's population growth in 2022 is exceptionally high (+104 000 inhabitants) according to the new demographic projections. In the long term, however, the increase is less dynamic than in the past thirty years. Population growth in Flanders will remain relatively similar to that of recent decades. Wallonia is experiencing significantly lower growth than previously. In Brussels, the population will hardly increase in projection.
Forecasts & Outlook - SHORT_DP22 (fr), (nl),
MIDAS, the dynamic microsimulation model that focuses on the social sustainability of pensions, has undergone a major revision in recent years to improve the validity of the projections. This Working Paper not only reports on this revision, but also describes some important new modules.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-23 (nl), (nl),
This report (written at the request of the limited Council of Ministers) examines the budgetary impact as well as the consequences for the pensions of men and women of the pension agreement of July 19th, 2022. This agreement contains three measures :
Reports - REP_CEP15_12689 (mix),
Other publications - IIS 03 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - FORVERG202201 (fr), (mix), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - FOR_DEMO21_UPD_2201 (fr), (nl),
In the context of the significant increase in the number of beneficiaries of the health and disability insurance observed over the last 20 years in Belgium, we seek to develop an explanatory model for work incapacity and disability. On the basis of SILC data, we attempt to identify and prioritise the effects of different factors that may influence the probability of employees' transitions between socio-economic statutes, and in particular to and from primary incapacity and disability.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-22 (fr),
Reports - REP_Pension_202201 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Flash 002 (fr), (nl),
Other publications - IIS 01 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - FORVERG202101 (fr), (nl),
The first part of this Working Paper discusses the main trends in Belgium regarding the risk of poverty, compared to those in the EU27 and neighbouring countries. A second part shows that the increase in the risk of poverty in the population under 60 years can be partly attributed to an increase in the concentration of the lack of paid work in certain households. Also, social security benefits and social assistance benefits are less and less successful in raising jobless households above the poverty threshold.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-21 (nl),
This Working Paper puts the policy choices made in the regional child benefit reforms into perspective. Using the microsimulation model EXPEDITION, the expected direct effects of these reforms on child benefit expenditure and income distribution are mapped out. Special attention is paid to the effects on the simulated poverty risk of (families with) children, as this was a shared concern during the reforms in the different regions.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-21 (nl),
The debate on the affordability of pensions is mostly limited to legal pensions while thus far, the affordability of supplementary pensions has hardly received any attention. Nevertheless, an increase in these pensions also affects public finances considering the lower government revenues that result from the various tax incentives used to promote supplementary pension saving. In this report we calculate the total impact of tax incentives for second pillar pensions on Belgian public finances.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-21 (nl),
This publication presents the main results of the demographic outlook for Belgium: population, households, births, deaths, international migration and internal migration. To show the sensitivity of the results to some assumptions, three alternative scenarios are analysed: one linked to the health crisis (Covid-19), another modifying the long-term mortality assumption and a last one adjusting the assumption on international emigration.
Forecasts & Outlook - FOR_POP2070_12389 (fr), (nl),
The supplementary table 29 of the Eurostat transmission program covers the statutory and occupational pension schemes in social insurance in Belgium. The FPB is charged with the compilation of columns G and H, which include accrued-to-date pension entitlements/liabilities in the statutory pension schemes, representing the present discounted value of accrued-to-date future old-age and survivor pensions of current beneficiaries and future beneficiaries who accumulated pension rights up to the valuation date.
This version of the report of January 2021 is an update of the version originally posted on the FPB website in December 2020. New estimates have been made with the assumption of a fixed discount rate of 2% for the baseline scenario and 1 and 3% for the sensitivity analysis.
Reports - REP_12213 (en),
The 2020-2070 demographic outlook presents the evolution of the population and households in Belgium from 2020 to 2070. In addition to updating future demographic trends, this outlook is built on a specific scenario related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Population growth in 2020 and 2021 will be very moderate, particularly as a result of the impact of COVID on mortality and international migration
Forecasts & Outlook - FOR_DP20_12326 (fr), (nl),
The Ageing Working Group was established in December 1999 by the Economic Policy Committee of the European Council ECOFIN. This working group is responsible for producing common budgetary projections on age-related public expenditure items. Each Member State calculates its long-term pension expenditure based on common assumptions.
This report presents the Belgian pension projection 2019-2070 published in the “2021 Ageing Report”. These results will be used in the context of the “Fiscal Sustainability Report” of the European Commission that assesses the mid-term and long-term fiscal situation of Member states.
It should be noted that the demographic and macroeconomic assumptions in the public pension expenditure projection of Belgium for the AWG are different from those retained in the national projection of the Study Committee on Ageing, as well as the scope of pension definition.
Reports - REP_COUNTRYFICH2020 (en),
This Working Paper presents the methodology that has been applied since 2020 in the model used to draw up the population outlook for Belgium. The methodology considers that fertility is explained by both structural (education, labour market participation, etc.) and cyclical factors (the economic cycle, etc.). Those factors are taken into account through three elements: (1) expert opinion on long-term fertility trends, (2) an explicit trend in the fertility schedule and (3) the effect of cyclical and structural determinants of fertility using an error-correction model.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-20 (en),
Forecasts & Outlook - FORVERG202001 (fr), (nl),
Reports - REP_POP1970 (fr), (nl),
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