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Modelling tomorrow’s transport efficiently and following-up closely and continuously the results of Belgium’s transport policy rank high among the Belgian government’s priorities. In order to achieve these, it is of the utmost importance to have the fullest possible view of the main aspects of mobility in Belgium, as well as of the place and evolution of transport within our economy.
It is with this aim in mind that the Federal Planning Bureau works on transport matters. Concretely, transport research at the Federal Planning Bureau covers the following topics:
The FPB produces macroeconomic analyses and short-term and medium-term forecasts for Belgium on behalf of the federal government and the Central Economic Council. The labour market team focuses on wage cost, employment, labour supply, working time and commuting to work. It also conducts regional macroeconomic analyses jointly with or on behalf of the research departments of the regional authorities.
In addition it performs two types of microeconomic research. The effectiveness of federal and regional labour market policies is assessed ex post using microeconomic data. Second, the ex ante impact of welfare and tax policies reforms on labour supply, income and income distribution is assessed by means of microeconomic simulations.
The FPB publishes short-term forecasts every year in February and in September. They are used to prepare or adjust the federal budget. Final responsibility for these forecasts (also known as the 'Economic Budget') lies with the board of directors of the Institute of National Accounts.
Inflation forecasts on a monthly basis are updated every first Tuesday of the month (except for August).
Medium-term projections provide a macroeconomic projection for a six-year period. A projection is published in February as a contribution to the preparation of the Stability Programme and the National Reform Programme. An updated and more detailed projection is published in June.
Regional projections (for the three Belgian regions) are published in July in cooperation with the Institut bruxellois de statistique et d’analyse (IBSA), Statistiek Vlaanderen and the Institut wallon de l'évaluation, de la prospective et de la statistique (IWEPS). They are coherent with the June medium-term outlook.
In addition, scenario analyses are made to estimate the impact of external shocks or policy measures on the economic system.
The above-mentioned forecasts and projections are prepared under an ‘unchanged policy assumption’. Only formally decided and sufficiently detailed measures are taken into account.
The FPB uses the following models to prepare its forecasts:
The statistical annexes of the national and regional projections can be consulted in the Data section.
The Belgian economy is, by nature, very open. To enable a better analysis of the functioning of the European and the world economy and its effects on the Belgian economy, the FPB has developed two models: the NIME model and the NEMESIS model. Both models are no longer used by the FPB, although developments in the world economy are of course still closely monitored and analysed in the framework of the short-term forecasts and medium-term projections for the Belgian economy.
The NIME and NEMESIS models are economic annual models that use econometric techniques. The models are developed and implemented on the FPB’s econometric platform IODE.
The NIME model is a world macroeconometric model that has been developed by the FPB. The model was used to produce medium-term outlooks for the world economy and to analyse the transmission mechanisms of economic policies and exogenous shocks.
In the NIME model, the world is divided into six blocs: the euro area, the western EU Member States outside the euro area, the new EU Member States outside the euro area, the United States, Japan and a bloc representing the rest of the world. All these blocs are linked together by trade and financial flows.
In all of these blocs but two - the new EU Member States and the rest of the world - a representative household sector, an enterprise sector, a government sector and a monetary sector are modelled. A similar set of behavioural equations and accounting identities is specified for each of the blocs; the parameter values of the equations are obtained using econometric techniques.
NEMESIS (New Econometric Model for Environmental and Sustainable development and Implementation Strategies) is a macrosectoral econometric model built to aid decision-making in the fields of energy, the environment and economic policy.
NEMESIS was built for two main purposes:
The project, co-financed by the European Commission, has been developed by a European consortium that included, the Federal Planning Bureau, SEURECO (Société Européenne d’Economie, Paris, France) and the Institute of Computer and Communication Systems (NTUA - University of Athens).
NEMESIS is a large econometric model incorporating about 288 000 equations and 400 000 variables.
NEMESIS covers the whole of Europe. The rest of the world is divided into ten different geographical areas and is assumed to be exogenous.
The model distinguishes 30 production sectors and 27 consumption functions. The data series are from databases provided by EUROSTAT, OECD and IEA and also from national sources.
NEMESIS (New Econometric Model for Environmental and Sustainable development and Implementation Strategies) is a macrosectoral econometric model built to aid decision-making in the fields of energy, environment and economic policy.
NEMESIS has been built for two main purposes:
The project, co-financed by the European Commission, has been developed by a European consortium including, besides the Federal Planning Bureau, l’Ecole Centrale de Paris (ERASME, France), the Institute of Computer and Communication Systems (NTUA - University of Athens) and the Chamber of Commerce of Paris (CCIP - France).
NEMESIS is a large econometric model incorporating about 70 000 equations, 8 000 of which are estimated. Currently, NEMESIS covers the whole of Europe and Norway (the US and Japan are being integrated). The rest of the world, divided into ten different geographical areas, is assumed to be exogenous.
The model describes 30 production sectors and 27 consumption functions. The data series are from databases provided by EUROSTAT, OECD and IEA and also from national sources.
The Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) carries out various activities on the theme of public finances. The FPB produces medium- and long-term projections of the government’s accounts. It also studies and models the interactions between macroeconomic evolutions and public finances. Within the National Accounts Institute (NAI), the FPB assists in drawing up the government's account in the national accounting.
The FPB carries out various activities on the theme of public finances :
Apart from various databases, the following instruments are used:
In collaboration with Statbel, the Federal Planning Bureau publishes annual population and household projections.
The population projections are based on a set of assumptions about the future evolution of mortality, fertility, international migration and internal migration. The FPB also produces household projections that are consistent with the population projections. These types of projections are relevant for various social aspects (e.g. increase in single-parent families or older single-person households) and economic aspects (impact on housing, transport, mobility, consumption, taxation, etc.) of life. Population and household projections are used in many FPB projection models.
For demographic projections, two models are used:
Energy holds an important place in our economies. It is a production factor for the manufacturing sector as well as a key element in our everyday life. For instance, it enables us to meet our heating and mobility needs. As a result, the energy question has become a major concern.
This is not without reason: many challenges will have to be taken up in this field in the decades to come, such as:
For a better understanding of the implications of these challenges for Belgium, the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) suggests two angles of analysis:
The long-term growth of the economy is closely linked to the productivity of the production factors and its evolution. In the last few years, however, growth in labour productivity has decelerated in Europe and in Belgium. This slowdown partially explains the differences in economic performance within the European Union and between Europe and the rest of the world.
A better understanding of the evolution of productivity requires a specially adapted statistical tool that allows an industry-based analysis of the fundamental trends of the economy. Therefore, the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) is working with other European institutions on a project, financed by the European Union’s sixth framework programme for research, to develop the EUKLEMS database (see also http://www.euklems.net).
This database contains the variables for analysing the evolution of productivity at industry level according to different methodologies for constructing productivity.
The FPB continues to periodically update the Belgian section of this international database.
In order to forecast productivity, one has to understand its driving factors. The FPB is especially interested in better defining the role of three of these determinants:
Technology and capital deepening
The quantity and the quality of available capital are both important determinants of labour productivity, the evolution of which conditions long-term economic growth. By investing, companies provide their workers with both more and better equipment, incorporating the latest technological advances.
The FPB studies the impact of investments on the productivity of Belgian companies. Particular attention is given to the contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT).
Innovation and technical progress
The evolution of productivity is closely related to innovation and technical progress. In addition to the technical progress incorporated into a business’s capital from investment, technical progress is also generated by the firm itself through its innovations in products, processes, organisation or marketing. This source of technical progress is important because it is not be governed by the law of decreasing returns and could lead to a sustained long-term improvement in the population’s standard of living.
The FPB analyses the determinants of innovation and evaluates Belgian innovation systems compared with those of our European neighbours.
The FPB, in collaboration with the Walloon Region, has contributed to the development of a database which allows an international comparison of indicators for the Walloon innovation system. Following a similar approach and together with the FPS Science Policy, it is creating a database of the main innovation indicators for Belgium. The database can be consulted on the website www.innovationdata.be.
Entrepreneurship and market functioning
The growth of productivity is partially linked to a country’s capacity to create productive activities, in other words, to create and develop businesses. In that regard, the market structure and the degree of competition play an important role.
The FPB analyses the benchmarks for measuring abstract concepts such as market structure and competition in order to assess possible impediments to competition. It also studies the extent to which market functioning leads to unnecessarily high prices and/or price increases. If market functioning fails, regulation or deregulation are recommended
Better understanding the Belgian economy’s structural evolutions and its insertion in both the European Union and the world plays an important role in identifying the key factors of long-term growth.
Federal Planning Bureau
