To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2018-2023 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2018-2019 - June 2018 (fr), (nl),
The ‘first recruitments’ measure aims at supporting job creation in new and small firms through a reduction in employers' social security contributions. However, part of the eligible employers does not claim this reduction. Using administrative data from the National Social Security Office, we seek to quantify this phenomenon, which may bias the intended effect of the measure, and to identify profiles of non-take-up.
Planning & Working Papers - Working Paper 06-18 (fr), (nl),
This report constitutes a contribution to the preparation of the new Stability Programme and the new National Reform Programme. It includes the main results of the preliminary version of the “2018-2023 Economic Outlook” to be published in June 2018.
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2018-2023 - March 2018 (fr), (nl),
Between April 2013 and January 2015, youth sub-minimum wage rates were repealed in Belgium. We identify the impact of the reform by comparing outcomes before and after the withdrawal, across eligible and ineligible categories of young workers, and across abolishing and not abolishing joint committees. Our results show that the reform had a small positive impact on wages and on retention rates and a comparable but negative impact on accession rates.
Planning & Working Papers - Working Paper 04-18 (en),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2018 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2017-2018 (Sept) (fr), (nl),
This paper proposes a new model to account for unobserved heterogeneity in empirical modelling. The model extends the well-known Finite Mixture (or Latent Class) Model by using the Johnson family of distributions for the component densities. Due to the great variety of distributional shapes that can be assumed by the Johnson family, the method does not impose the usual a priori assumptions regarding the type of densities that are mixed.
Planning & Working Papers - Working Paper 14-17 (en),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2017-2022 (fr), (mix), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2017 - June 2017 (fr), (nl),
This report is an input to the preparation of the new Stability Programme and of the new National Reform Programme (NRP). It presents the assumptions and the main results of the preliminary version of the “Economic Outlook 2017-2022”. The final version of the outlook will be published in June 2017.
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2017-2022 - March 2017 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2017 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2016-2017 (Sept) (fr), (nl),
Recent studies reveal the importance of entrants and young firms for job creation, productivity and economic growth. Some scholars argue that the falling rate at which new firms are established, can explain, to a certain extent, the productivity slowdown witnessed in most OECD countries. Belgium appears to stand out unfavourably from other countries in its very low start-up rate. This paper reviews the empirical cross-country evidence, provides some additional analysis of the role of young firms in industry-level employment and productivity dynamics in Belgium and concludes with a discussion of the implications for economic policy.
Planning & Working Papers - Working Paper 06-16 (en),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2016-2017 (June)
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2016 (fr), (nl),
Reports - OPREP201602 (fr),
In this study, we investigate the exit rates from unemployment associated with different levels of education in Belgium during two periods characterised respectively by high (2002-2007) and low economic growth (2009-2014). Our estimated exit probabilities confirm that the chances of leaving unemployment are substantially higher for young unemployed who have followed post-secondary education. Moreover, the probabilities of leaving unemployment for low- and medium-skilled school leavers considerably deteriorated between the two periods. On the one hand, the penalty associated with lower education slightly increased while, on the other hand, the advantage associated with postgraduate tertiary education reinforced itself. Finally, our results show considerable heterogeneity according to region of residence and gender.
Planning & Working Papers - Working Paper 10-15 (en),
Reports - REP_SHIFT_1501 (fr), (nl),
In accordance with the Law of 21 December 1994, the National Accounts Institute has transmitted the figures of the economic budget to the Minister for Economy. These macroeconomic forecasts are produced within the framework of the preparation of the federal budget for 2016. These forecasts do not take into account the government measures announced in July in the context of the preparation of the federal budget and the tax shift. This also holds for the VAT rate hike on electricity for domestic use from September onwards as this measure is part of a global agreement, the modalities of which were not available in time for integration into these forecasts.
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015-2016 (Sept)
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015-2016 (June)
Speeches & presentations - SP20150512_01 (mix),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015-2020 (fr), (nl), (fr), (nl), (fr), (fr), (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl), (nl), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015 (fr), (nl),
This article presents a traditional shift-share decomposition to identify contributions of three effects on the rise in the hourly wage cost in Belgium: changes in the industry composition of total hours worked (composition effect), changes in the structure of employment in terms of categories of workers (employment structure effect), and increases in the hourly wage cost of these individual categories (wage effect).
Planning & Working Papers - Working Paper 01-15 (fr),