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Publicaties

Om de transparantie en informatieverstrekking te bevorderen, publiceert het FPB regelmatig de methoden en resultaten van zijn werkzaamheden. De publicaties verschijnen in verschillende reeksen, zoals de Vooruitzichten, de Working Papers en de Planning Papers. Sommige rapporten kunnen ook hier geraadpleegd worden, evenals de nieuwsbrieven van de Short Term Update die tot 2015 werden gepubliceerd. U kunt op thema, publicatietype, auteur en jaar zoeken.

Documents (81)

2011

  • Herziening van het Belgisch federalisme en budgettaire houdbaarheid : belangrijke implicaties 24/03/2011

    In België heeft de crisis, net zoals in andere landen, het risico doen toenemen dat de houdbaarheid van de overheidsfinanciën in het gedrang komt[1]: de stijging van het structureel tekort, de toename van de schuld en de aanzienlijke kosten van de vergrijzing maken een beleid dat de houdbaarheid van de overheidsfinanciën herstelt noodzakelijk. In deze studie onderzoekt het FPB de mogelijke gevolgen van de herziening van het Belgisch budgettair federalisme[2], die nu op tafel ligt, voor het opzetten van een dergelijk beleid.


    [1]Onhoudbaarheid van de overheidsfinanciën: situatie waarin, in afwezigheid van budgettaire saneringen of hervormingen, de publieke schuldgraad in de toekomst buitensporig dreigt toe te nemen.

    [2]Budgettair federalisme: verdeling van de budgettaire en fiscale bevoegdheden en de financiële middelen tussen de verschillende beleidsniveaus.

    Artikels - Article 20110324  

2010

  • A macro-econometric model for the economy of Lesotho 03/11/2010

    The Federal Planning Bureau took part, in collaboration with the German institute DIW Berlin, in a technical assistance project financed by the European Commission aimed at developing different modelling approaches for the economy of Lesotho, a small country landlocked within the territory of South Africa. In the context of this project a macro-econometric model was elaborated. This Working Paper describes the main characteristics and the behavioural equations of this model and discusses a baseline simulation and an alternative scenario aimed at reducing up to 2012 the expected public deficit.

    Artikels - Article 2010110301  

2009

  • Understanding wage determination in a multi-level bargaining system 21/12/2009

    This study attempts to measure the impact of industry-level wage bargaining on individual wages in Belgium. The results indicate that industry wage bargaining increases decided collectively at the industry level are, on average, fully passed on to actual wages. Moreover, industry wage bargaining seems to coexist along with a wage drift affected by company size, the economic performance of the industry and labour market tensions.

    Artikels - Article 2009122103  

  • Economic impacts of tax-shifting operations 21/12/2009

    This study is devoted to the analysis of the main effects on the Belgian economy, for the period 2010-2020, of various forms of tax-shifting aimed at increasing taxes on energy and, simultaneously, decreasing other forms of taxation. All these variants have been simulated using the FPB’s medium-term model for Belgian  economy (HERMES).

    Artikels - Article 2009122102  

  • The economic impact of the Services directive 21/12/2009

    By the end of 2009, all Member States of the EU must have transposed the Services directive into national law. This will constitute a major step forward in the completion of the legal framework for the internal market, but its economic impact is expected to be relatively small. It may lead to double-digit export growth for certain services branches. The small scale of these exports, however, gives rise to a weak impact on turnover, value added and employment.

    Artikels - Article 2009122101  

  • Impact of the financial crisis on Belgian potential output 06/10/2009

    The concepts of potential growth and the output gap are important tools, respectively, for assessing the supply- side capacity of an economy and evaluating the state of the business cycle. They have also become an essential ingredient of the European fiscal surveillance process. In this Working Paper we compare, in the context of the financial crisis, revisions of potential output for Belgium made recently by the Federal Planning Bureau and international organizations. Those comparisons aim at highlighting the uncertainty associated with those revisions as well as having a better  understanding of some of the channels through which the crisis may reduce potential output.

    Artikels - Article 2009100606  

  • Alternative assessment of Belgian competitiveness 06/10/2009

    This paper investigates the relationship between the relative positions, in terms of value added and relative prices, of Belgian manufacturing and market services in the European Union over 1970-2005. Relative prices are then broken down into relative unit costs of production factors. The analysis goes further by decomposing relative unit labour cost into relative hourly wages and relative productivity. Finally, relative productivity is broken down into relative capital deepening, relative labour
    composition effect and relative total factor productivity.

    Artikels - Article 2009100605  

  • Transport emissions – Historic evolution and outlook 06/10/2009

    Transport is a major source of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions and plays an important role in their  evolution. Transport emissions are closely monitored and their future evolution is integrated into the FPB transport model, PLANET. The publication uses a decomposition analysis to compare the projected evolution of the emissions in the base scenario of the PLANET model to the base scenario of two other models and to put these in a historic perspective. The analysis focuses on Tank-to-Wheel emissions and is limited to three modes: road transport, railways and inland navigation.

    Artikels - Article 2009100604  

  • The Belgian environment industry (1995-2005) 06/10/2009

    Recent years have seen a growing interest in the economic potential of environmental protection activities. The protection of the environment necessitates the development, production and marketing of a host of environmentally friendly products and production processes, the development of the skills needed to use them, environmental legislation, an administration to keep track of these developments, etc. All these activities are provided for by the environment industry. This study investigates the development of the environment industry in Belgium between 1995 and 2005.

    Artikels - Article 2009100603  

  • Sustainable development indicators, objectives and visions 06/10/2009

    The publication of the fifth Federal Report on sustainable development implements the Belgian Act of 5 May 1997 on the Coordination of Federal Sustainable Development Policy. This Report contributes to the debate on the role and choice of indicators and objectives for measuring the development of a country and for the implementation of that strategic process. It studies a set of sustainable development indicators (SDI) that shows to what extent living conditions in Belgium are heading towards sustainable development strategic objectives (SDSO). The Report also studies these strategic objectives in the context of long term visions of society.

    Artikels - Article 2009100602  

  • Measuring development progress beyond GDP 06/10/2009

    This special topic article describes three kinds of synthetic indicators complementing GDP: the Human Development Index, the Ecological Footprint with Biocapacity and, third, indicators based on Environmental Satellite Accounts. It shows that these indicators, among others, provide useful additional information on the human and environmental resource bases of development.

    Artikels - Article 2009100601  

  • Assessing adequacy of pensions 02/03/2009

    In the context of the European-funded sixth framework project, "Adequacy of Old-Age Income Maintenance in the EU (AIM)", a dynamic microsimulation model has been developed for Belgium, Germany and Italy. This model, called MIDAS, simulates future developments in the adequacy of pensions in Belgium, Italy and Germany, following wherever possible the projections and assumptions of the Ageing Working Group.

    Artikels - Article 2009030205  

  • Impact of the EU Energy and Climate Package on the Belgian energy system and economy 02/03/2009

    In order to prepare for the negotiations on the EU Energy and Climate Package (E/C Package), the Federal Planning Bureau was asked by the Belgian federal and regional authorities to conduct a study on the impact of the European Commission's proposal of January 2008. In the course of the study, various scenarios and sensitivity analyses were run. Next to a baseline, two main alternative scenarios were scrutinized: the 20/20 and 30/20 target scenarios, standing for an EU reduction of, respectively, 20% and 30% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the year 2020 compared to the level of 1990, and a mandatory 20% EU-wide share for renewable energy sources (RES) in Gross Final Energy Demand in 2020. The report then includes an analysis of the impact of both scenarios on the Belgian energy system and economy as well as on GHG emissions.

    Artikels - Article 2009030204  

  • The impact of offshoring on employment in Belgium 02/03/2009

    Worries about massive job losses have prompted a fast-growing literature on offshoring and its impact on employment in advanced economies. This paper examines the situation for Belgium. The offshoring intensity is computed as the share of imported intermediate inputs in output, based on a series of constant price supply- and-use tables for 1995-2003. Estimations of static and dynamic industry-level labour demand equations augmented by offshoring intensities, do not reveal a significant impact of either materials or business services offshoring on total employment for Belgium between 1995 and 2003, but this does not preclude a differential impact by skill-level.

    Artikels - Article 2009030203  

  • System of Innovation in Wallonia 02/03/2009

    This Working Paper evaluates the performance of the system of innovation in Wallonia for the most recent available period. Like the previous paper, this paper is based on the analysis of indicators reflecting the six main components of a system of innovation: knowledge development, human resources, valorisation of R&D, absorption capacity of innovation, entrepreneurship and innovation financing. A country's performance depends not only on the relative strength of each individual element but also on how effectively the components interact. These six components are evaluated from a European perspective: Wallonia is compared with European countries and European regions with similar socio-economic characteristics.

    Artikels - Article 2009030202  

  • Long term transport projections for Belgium 02/03/2009

    An efficient transport system is essential for the economic development of Belgium. Today it is clear that transport not only contributes positively to welfare, but also causes negative effects. Witness to this are the many traffic jams on the roads and the problems caused by air pollution. By sketching an image of what the future might bring, this Planning Paper aims to present elements that can support the formulation of transport policies. The time horizon of the study is 2030.

    Artikels - Article 2009030201  

2008

  • Recent evolution of the welfare adjustment of social security benefits 07/03/2008

    Social benefits are adjusted according to increases in the level of prices and are also adjusted – rather irregularly – to the general evolution of welfare. These welfare adjustments can apply to various elements of social legislation or parameters of social policy: the benefit amount, the ceilings used to calculate the benefits, etc. The Act of 23 December 2005 providing for a Solidarity Pact between the Generations establishes a structural mechanism of welfare adjustment for social benefits. The Working Paper analyses the main characteristics of the mechanism and the details of its implementation. It assesses the budgetary effects of the measures that have been taken within this framework and compares the benefit adjustments that have been carried out over recent years with wage growth. Finally, two alternative scenarios of benefit adjustment policy are examined.

    Artikels - Article 2008030703  

  • Budget surpluses to face population ageing: the reality and the prospects 07/03/2008

    The Working Paper looks at the strategy that has been implemented in Belgium since the beginning of the decade to finance the future increase in public spending due to population ageing. This strategy is laid down in the Stability Programmes and in the Ageing Act and is supported by a broad social and political consensus. It implies building up budget surpluses, which has not been done so far. The paper analyses the long-term effects of such a situation, for example as regards the trade-off between the various policies that could be implemented to face the budgetary challenges posed by ageing populations.

    Artikels - Article 2008030702  

  • Estimating private health expenditures within a dynamic consumption allocation model 07/03/2008

     In the health economics literature, it is customary to model total (private and public) aggregate health expenditures as a function of income, demographic ageing and a host of other variables. Private health expenditures are rarely modelled separately and if they are, the models are often based on individual data and limited to specific medical services such as physician visits. In this paper we specify a model of aggregate private health expenditures, embedded in a generalisation of Deaton & Muellbauer’s Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). The main advantage of specifying a complete demand system is that all household consumption decisions, including the ones about the use of health care services, are subject to the same budget restriction.

    Artikels - Article 2008030701  

2007

  • An analysis of recent measures concerning the pension scheme for the self-employed 10/12/2007

    The Generation Pact and, before that, the Councils of  ministers held in Gembloux and Ostend, have led to  adjustments in the pension scheme for self-employed  workers: an increase in the minimum pension, welfare  adjustments (including the “welfare bonus”), a pension  bonus and adjustment of pension penalties (“malus”).  The MoSES model  as used to estimate the budgetary  cost of these reforms and to assess their impact on the  average pension benefit for the self-employed. The  Working Paper first gives a general survey of the model  and its new functionalities (some of which have been  specially developed in order to model the new measures)  and presents the results of the simulations.

    Artikels - Article 2007121004  

  • Qualitative employment multipliers for Belgium, results for 2000 and 2002 10/12/2007

    This paper introduces the notion of qualitative employment  multipliers. For each final demand product, a set of  employment multipliers was computed. Each of these  gives the  use of an employment type characterised by  gender, age class, professional status, education level  or labour regime. The paper describes a method for  compiling qualitative employment multipliers and shows  results based on disaggregated employment and input  output data for 2000 and 2002.

    Artikels - Article 2007121003  

  • Belgium’s energy future challenged by climate change 10/12/2007

    Every three years, the Federal Planning Bureau  releases a publication on the long-term energy projections  for Belgium, based on the energy model PRIMES.  This Planning Paper is the third in the series and puts the  emphasis on the link with climate change. Amongst  other things, a baseline and a selection of emission  reduction scenarios for the period after 2012 are  described.

    Artikels - Article 2007121002  

  • Accelerating the transition towards sustainable development 10/12/2007

    The publication of the fourth Federal Report on sustainable  development implements the Belgian Act of 5 May  1997 on the Coordination of Federal Sustainable Development  Policy. This Act institutes a strategic process of  reporting, planning, implementation and monitoring in  order to introduce these policies in Belgium at the federal  level. This report proposes two long term (2050)  sustainable development scenarios and assesses the  existing situation, including the current policy on sustainable  development.

    Artikels - Article 2007121001  

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